[ White paper · October 2026 ]

Where the Money Moves

A field guide for companies that build things and want federal revenue they can count on.

Grounds

buildgrounds.com

You have probably paid for access already. This paper is about what access doesn't tell you: which line is funded, who spends it, and which path reaches production.

1.0The money you can't see

Language is not money
More access, fewer entrants
The gap, in dollars

2.0How a dollar reaches you

Nine steps
Color and clock
One signal, followed

3.0Paths to production

Prototypes are easy
Three routes in

4.0Reading the odds

Expected value, not hope
What Grounds gives you

[ 0.0 ]

If you have hired and fired your way through advisors

You are not alone, and you were not wrong to try.

Most of the companies I have worked with built something the government needs. Many paid a lobbyist, a consultant, or both. Some won report language. Very few could then answer three questions: where the money for their work sits, which path gets them to production, and what to do next week.

This paper shows how to answer them, with public documents and real numbers.

Sarah Tran

FOUNDER AND CEO, GROUNDS

1.0

The money you can't see

The decisions that fund your work are made a year before the notice, in documents nobody on your team has time to read.

[ 1.1 ]

Language is not money

Report language is the most common thing companies buy. It is rarely what they need.

Authorizers write the defense policy bill and its report. Appropriators write the funding bill. Only the second puts dollars on a line. We counted what each produced in the latest cycle.

FIG. 1Phrase occurrences, Grounds count of H. Rept. 119-231 and S. Rept. 119-52. Only program increases put dollars on a line.

What you got	What it does	Money on a line?
"Encourages"	Signals interest. No deadline	No
A directed briefing	The service must answer Congress by a date	No
A plan by program element	The service must name where it would fund the work	Not yet
A program increase	Adds dollars to a specific line	Yes, if the office spends it on you

[ 1.2 ]

More access, fewer entrants

If access were the bottleneck, more of it would bring more companies in. It hasn't.

Federal lobbying passed $5 billion in 2025.¹ Over 2017 to 2021 it rose 12 percent while the defense industrial base lost a net 17,045 companies.² When NDIA asked small businesses what was hardest, the top answer, at 52 percent, was finding the right points of contact.³

FIG. 2Indexed to 2017 = 100. Lobbying $3.38B to $3.78B; defense industrial base companies 76,723 to 59,678.

[ 1.3 ]

The gap, in dollars

DoD sent $102.6 billion in contracts to small businesses in FY2025, 75 percent more than in FY2016. The pool of small businesses winning that work has been shrinking for a decade.

GAO counted 42,723 small businesses with DoD awards in FY2011 and 24,296 in FY2020, a 43 percent decline.⁹ Between FY2016 and FY2020, DoD dollars per small-business vendor rose from $1.8 million to $3.4 million. In FY2025, $232 billion of DoD contract dollars, 47 percent, were awarded without competition.¹⁰

The money set aside for companies like yours is growing. The number of companies positioned to win it is not.

FIG. 3DoD contract obligations to small-business recipients, $ billions. Grounds analysis of USAspending.

APR 2025

Executive Order 14265

Directs DoD to give first preference to commercial solutions, Other Transactions and rapid acquisition.

NOV 2025

Warfighting Acquisition System

Portfolio acquisition executives replace layers of program oversight.

JAN 2026

Office of Industrial Base Growth

Charged with bringing new companies into the defense market.

APR 2026

SBIR reauthorized to 2031

Adds Strategic Breakthrough Awards of up to $30 million.

[ The point ]

Relationships are table stakes. What wins is walking in already knowing where the money is going.

2.0

How a dollar reaches you

Nine steps, two committees, one office, one vehicle, and a deadline.

[ 2.1 ]

Nine steps

Lobbyists usually work step two. Databases start at step seven. Consultants bill for the middle. You need all nine.

Step	Where it lives	What it decides
1 · Budget request	J-book, program element	What the service asks for
2 · Authorization	NDAA and report	What is allowed. Report language urges
3 · Appropriation	Defense funding bill and tables	Real dollars, line by line
4 · Release	OMB and comptroller	When the service can spend
5 · Program office	Spend plan	Which effort, which year
6 · Vehicle	OT, CSO, consortium, IDIQ	How you can be paid
7 · Notice	Call, RFP, prototype project	Who is eligible, by when
8 · Award	Contract or agreement	The money moves
9 · Production	Follow-on, program of record	Whether it lasts

[ 2.2 ]

Color and clock

Every dollar can buy only certain things, and only for so long.

Pitch production to an office holding research money and the answer is no, however good the product. Miss the deadline and the money is gone.

Color	Clock	Buys
Research (RDT&E)	2 years	Prototypes, development, test
Procurement	3 years; shipbuilding 5	Production quantities
Operations (O&M)	1 year	Sustainment, repair parts, services

[ 2.3 ]

One signal, followed

In FY2026, House authorizers told the Army to brief them on 25mm and 40mm rounds for countering drones. No money. Senate appropriators then added $2.5 million to Army research line 0603639A for counter-drone medium caliber ammunition.⁴ The Army's FY2027 request for that line is $277.2 million, more than triple. And the Army planned a consortium request for 40mm counter-drone rounds with a possible production follow-on.⁵

A company that saw only the language waited. A company that saw the line, the office and the vehicle got on the consortium.

3.0

Paths to production

Plan the production path before the prototype starts.

[ 3.1 ]

Prototypes are easy. Production isn't.

DoD obligated $16.1 billion on prototype Other Transactions in FY2024, and about $2 billion on production ones.⁶

Only 16 percent of DoD SBIR companies ever won a Phase III contract.⁷ DoD does not track how many prototypes reach production; when GAO checked 48 reported transitions, seven were production contracts.⁶

FIG. 4DoD prototype OT obligations by year, and production OTs in FY2024. GAO-25-107546.

[ 3.2 ]

Three routes in, no recompete

Each of these reaches production without you winning a second competition.

ROUTE 1

OT prototype to production

A competitively awarded, successful prototype can lead straight to follow-on production (10 U.S.C. 4022(f)). Consortia that run these often cost $500 or nothing to join.⁸

ROUTE 2

SBIR Phase III

Any agency can award follow-on work of any size to the company that built the technology, with no new competition. It is paid from the office's own money.

ROUTE 3

Qualify under a prime

The prime already holds the vehicle. You pass a first article and join its supply base. For 40mm, those vehicles sit with a handful of companies, all on public record.

ALWAYS

Money of the right color, on time

Every route still needs an office with funds that can buy what you sell. Budgets run two to three years ahead, so the production ask starts during the prototype.

4.0

Reading the odds

Chase paths by expected value and time to first dollar, not by how exciting the program sounds.

[ 4.1 ]

Expected value, not hope

For an 85-person maker of projectile bodies and fuze housings, four paths show up. The best-sounding one is not the best bet.

Path	Route	Odds	Value if won	Expected value	First dollar
Second source, medium caliber metal parts	Qualify under a prime	15%	$2M to $6M a year	$600K	12 to 24 months
Counter-drone medium caliber rounds	OT prototype to production	20%	$1M to $4M	$500K	9 to 18 months
40mm development projectile bodies	Subcontract on an existing vehicle	30%	$0.6M to $1.8M	$360K	4 to 9 months
40mm airburst manufacturing capacity	Industrial base award	10%	$1M to $3.5M	$225K	12 to 24 months

Illustrative company. The lines, vehicles and holders behind each path are real public records; the odds are Grounds estimates.

[ 4.2 ]

What Grounds gives you

Two answers for your company, kept current every week.

The money: every budget line that funds what you build, what it can buy, when it expires, and every move Congress made on it.

The paths: every way from there to production without a new competition, with the odds, the expected value, who holds the vehicle, and the steps in order.

Insights: the money and the paths for your company, across a full budget cycle. Autopilot: capture worked end to end, booked through Q1 2027. Expedited Services, priced on request: rapid scale of government contracts, non-dilutive funding and strategy, with an operator deployment team and 24/7 support.

[ Next step ]

See where the money for your work is moving.

Your lines, your paths and the odds, in one place.

See a live map Visit buildgrounds.com

Notes

OpenSecrets, federal lobbying totals (Senate Office of Public Records data).
NDIA, Vital Signs 2023, Govini data.
NDIA, Vital Signs 2026, small business survey.
Senate Appropriations, S. Rept. 119-52, p. 162; House Armed Services, H. Rept. 119-231, p. 13; Senate Armed Services FY27 report funding tables.
The Defense Post, Army counter-drone 40mm request, Nov 2025.
GAO, GAO-25-107546, Sept 2025.
Defense Innovation Board, Terraforming the Valley of Death, 2023.
10 U.S.C. 4022(f); National Armaments Consortium; Cornerstone has no membership fee.
GAO, GAO-22-104621: small businesses receiving DoD awards.
Grounds analysis of USAspending contract obligations (award types A to D), FY2016 to FY2025: small-business recipients and extent competed.